Sam Ghandchiسام قندچيElectric Cars: Unrealistic Predictions Create Backlash for Futurist Ideas
Sam Ghandchi
خودروهای الکتریکی: پیش بینی های غیرواقعی باعث پس ضربه به ایده های آینده نگری می شود


One thing, the modern futurists have learned in the last 80 years is the fact that unrealistic predictions about the future, creates backlash among the people. The first major futurists in the years following World War II, Ossip K. Flechtheim and Bertrand de Jouvenel in Europe, who had seen the failures of future visions of the socialists, paid close attention to realism in their visions of the future, when promoting Modern Futurism (1). It had become clear to Modern Futurists that the modern ideals of social justice and freedom cannot be achieved in the framework of the industrial society, whether one chooses the capitalist road, or the socialist path, and thus one had to assess the potentials of the coming post-industrial society, a monumental work which was finally achieved in the magnum opus of Daniel Bell entitled "The Coming of the Post-Industrial Society" (2). Needless to say that emphasis on realistic predictions was also the reason that analytic futurism, received, more emphasis, than visionary futurism, or participatory futurism, in the endeavors of the Modern Futurists (3).

The issue of electric cars has been discussed a lot in the last decade, especially during the Obama administration in the U.S. Unfortunately some simple common sense realities are not paid attention to. For electric cars to be a competitive solution, electricity must be cheaper than the cost of what produces the electricity. Most power plants still use petroleum or related products. When even in a home in the U.S.,
if gas is available for heating, it is still a lot cheaper, than using electricity, for heating, even though the price incorporates the cost of its transportation, then how could electric solutions even match that. True if solar power costs can drop drastically, as Ray Kurzweil predicts to happen in the next 12 years (4); yes then, only the power grid will be the bottleneck, and even using the current US power grid, electricity produced in such future solar power plants, but surely *not* the current solar plants, can be a serious competitor to fossil fuel, and then electric cars can become a real option, but till then, all these unrealistic predictions about electric cars, may only create backlash when not panning out.

Hoping for a democratic and secular
futurist republic in Iran,

Sam Ghandchi, Editor/Publisher
25, 2017

1. Modern Futurism
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2. Daniel Bell
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3. Modern Futurism
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4. Ray Kurzweil: Here's Why Solar Will Dominate Energy Within 12 Years

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