Beginning of the End of IRI
For many years, I have been active in Iranian political movement and till now have avoided to give an assessment about the point of the end of Islamic
Republic of Iran (IRI) and also have refused to say what Iranian people should
The reason for my first avoidance was that there are many factors that make the work of prediction almost impossible. As far as the second refusal, since I live abroad I always thought to consider the views of those active inside Iran rather than saying what those who live in Iran should do.
Today is the first time that I can dare to write that the end of Islamic Republic of Iran started this week and in the first section of this article in the following lines I will explain why I see it this way.
About the second point too, for the first time I think this week the movement that will define the end of Islamic Republic started this week, and I will explain this point in the second part of the article.
In my opinion, this week’s events in Lebanon are the cause for the start of the fall of Islamic Republic. Why? In my view, for years Islamic Republic had stated its ideological cause of conquering Jerusalem (ghods) and its commitment to Palestine. It is true that the first instigations of Khomeini against Iraq were also ideological and he talked of conquering Karbala and it is true that when Iraq attacked Iran, IRI started its own defense and war, although very quickly the color of Iran’s defense lost its Islamic ideological color, and for effective resistance to Iraq, the defense got a nationalist color and finally IRI, for peace with Saddam, used the national interests as a justification of its decision.
At any rates, in the case of Iraq, the issue neither got the ideological color nor IRI appeared to backstep much from its claims, and with a nationalist turn, Islamic Republic freed itself and today after the fall of Saddam it is talking again of the unity with the Shiites of Iraq when basically the state is in the hands of the Shiites and such slogans do not have much cost for IRI.
In contrast, IRI with regards to Palestine for almost 30 years, has had an ideological approach and with the government of Ahmadinejad and the revival of Khomeini’s slogans of the early days of 1979 Revolution and his adding of the slogans about the Holocaust, IRI has traveled this long road of ideological defense of Islamism in Palestine and with the goal of destruction of Israel for ideological reasons, reaching for the peak. In such conditions, suddenly the main force of Islamism in Palestine and South of Lebanon, namely Hams and Hizbullah, following the instigations of IRI, are at war with Israel. At such a critical time, after all the shows of long range missiles by IRI, it is immediately announcing that if Syria is attacked by Israel, it will face the wrath of the Islamic world, a slogan which means IRI will not do much more than just the aid and instigations that it has done for the Islamist Palestinian forces. IRI is proposing plans of ceasefire which means officially Hizbullah is their missionary that should give martyrs, and IRI will make the deals on its behalf.
It means that now that the opportunity has risen for IRI, after thirty years, to
materialize the ideological Islamist slogans of destroying Israel, IRI is leaving the battle field and its president only gives an empty
slogan with regards to Syria, which is basically not even an Islamic ideological
state, and IRI's president is back to his daily job of giving slogans and lectures for the youth in
Iran. It means that all the Islamist ideological supporters of IRI in
Palestine and other places from now on will be on the road of disappointment of
the ideological slogans of the Iranian Islamists seeing them as nothing but
empty talk. I have explained previously why Karl Popper said that Soviet
Union ended at the time of 1962 Cuban Crisis because at that time for the first
time the first opportunity of destroying the West that Soviet Communism had
talked of for decades, was available and not doing it at that moment ended the
legitimacy of Soviet Union and the clock started ticking for its downfall (1).
Why doesn't IRI attack Israel? IRI knows well from the experience of Iraq War that Iranian people do not care for any ideological war for Islam and why IRI was able to do the Iraq War for eight years was because of it getting a national character and in fact after the Iraq War the antiwar sentiments in Iran are so strong that even a defensive war is not that easy let alone a war of aggression especially if it is an ideological war and for Islamism. In fact, the peace seeking and antiwar sentiments in Iran are so strong that IRI has been using it for its issues confronting the West on the atomic program. This reality takes me to the second topic.
The second topic that I noted is that this week after many years for the first time I can dare to say that the movement to end the IRI has become defined and that is the movement for an Iran and a world beyond war. Many years ago I have written extensively about the beyond war program and my goal here is not to repeat that discussion (2).
My discussion here is that the movement that started under the auspices of the
call by Akbar Ganji to fast for freedom of political prisoners and his emphasis
on the issue of peace which basically was done for a call for peace in face of
the possible US attack of Iran, quickly found wide dimensions and those in Iran
who supported his call, mainly, rightly or wrongly, do not see the danger of
US attack to be real, and the reason for raising their voices for peace was
because of the danger of Iran attack on Israel. In fact, Iranian people
are afraid of IRI starting an Islamist ideological war and this is why this
movement quickly found wide dimensions and the words of Khamenei which were the
repeat of the empty slogans of getting involved in Palestine faced harsh
reactions in the high levels of Iranian government. These are the things I
call the beginning of the end of IRI.
Some in this period have sat down discussing the intentions of Mr. Ganji and talk of his distant past or talk of his current proximities to some reactionary reformists (3). As far as "Islaimic democracy," I have explained it in details before and no need to repeat (4). In my opinion, Mr. Ganji in his first trip abroad and after participating in Berlin Conference and his brave disclosures of the chained murders which were the main issues of Iranian political movement at the time, ended up in jail. This time again he has sided with the main movement that will define the path of the end of IRI. But different currents of Iranian political movement have their own leaders and will have their own leaders that have not formed in one day and will not form in one day either. Character assassination of him because of political and ideological differences is as wrong as character assassination of someone like Reza Pahlavi by any Iranian republican. Mr. Reza Pahlavi is the leader of Iranian monarchists and constitutionalists and clearly those opposing the restoration of monarchy, such as myself, differ with him in this regard but this is no reason to do character assassination of him whom I believe all these years has repeated his commitment to democracy. Iranian movement has leaders and perhaps will never end up with just one leader again, as it has become more and more a pluralistic movement
Let's return to the main topic. In reality with the decision of Iranian government which seems to be like the middleman of ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, we are entering a period of cold war between IRI and Israel and the West and in this era, the Iranian movement for democracy, social justice, and human rights will go thru the channel of the movement for an Iran beyond war because all the people of Iran are conscious of it and support it because they do not want to become the cannon powder for the ideological adventures of the Islamist leaders of IRI and in every step will stand on the other side blocking the regime. From today in every street corner the instigating ideological slogans about Israel and Palestine and a so-called road to Jerusalem will be resisted. Our people do not want war and are well aware that the same way that in the war with Iraq, Shiites of the Arab countries did not support the Iranians, in any war with Israel, the Arab Muslims, Shiite or Sunni, will leave us alone and it will only be Iranian people and Iran that will be the cannon powder in any such ideological adventure of Islamists.
In my opinion, the movement of last week showed what huge potential is stored in
the movement for peace among the Iranians inside and abroad and that this
movement is the beginning of a huge action in the course of peace-seeking and
establishing an Iran beyond war and at this turn of the time the experiences of
the Beyond War organization that was formed during the cold war of US and Soviet
union and helped the ending of the Soviet system can be very useful for us.
I have explained this topic in details in my previous article about beyond war
Hoping for a Democratic and Secular Futurist Republic in Iran,
Sam Ghandchi, Editor/Publisher
July 18, 2006
5. Beyond War
Text in Persian