Beginning of the End of IRI, Second Edition
آغازِ پایان جمهوری اسلامی، ویرایش
Intro for Second Edition of May 8, 2018: This article was written in July 2006 when Israel attacked South of Lebanon and the situation of Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) was resembled to the Soviet Union of Khrushchev era at the time of Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. Today after Israel's bombardment of IRI's military bases in Syria, Israel's shipment of nuclear documents of Iran in Tehran, and Donald Trump's relying on that data to exit Iran Deal, IRI is in a situation similar to the Soviet Union of Gorbachev era about 20 years after the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, a new situation which was closely tied to the defeat of Soviet Union in its military operations in Afghanistan.
The events in Lebanon are the cause for the start of the fall of Islamic Republic. Why? For years Islamic Republic had stated its ideological cause of conquering Jerusalem (Qods) and its commitment to Palestine. It is true that the first instigations of Khomeini against Iraq were also ideological and he talked of conquering Karbala and it is true that when Iraq attacked Iran, IRI started its own defense and war, although very quickly the color of Iran’s defense lost its Islamic ideological color, and for effective resistance to Iraq, the defense got a nationalist color and finally IRI, for peace with Saddam, used the national interests as a justification of its decision. At any rates, in the case of Iraq, the issue neither got the ideological color nor IRI appeared to backstep much from its claims, and with a nationalist turn, Islamic Republic freed itself and today after the fall of Saddam it is talking again of the unity with the Shiites of Iraq when basically the state is in the hands of the Shiites and such slogans do not have much cost for IRI. In contrast to its approach to Iraq, IRI with regards to Palestine, for almost 30 years, has had an ideological approach and with the government of Ahmadinejad and the revival of Khomeini’s slogans of the early days of 1979 Revolution and his adding of the slogans about the Holocaust, IRI has traveled this long road of ideological defense of Islamism in Palestine and with the goal of destruction of Israel for ideological reasons, reaching for the peak. In such conditions, suddenly the main force of Islamism in Palestine and South of Lebanon, namely Hamas and Hizbullah, following the instigations of IRI, are at war with Israel. At such a critical time, after all the shows of long range missiles by IRI, it is immediately announced that if Syria is attacked by Israel, it will face the wrath of the Islamic world, a slogan which means IRI will not do much more than just the aid and instigations that it has already done for the Islamist Palestinian forces. IRI is proposing plans of ceasefire which means officially Hizbullah is their missionary force that should give martyrs, and IRI will make the deals on its behalf. It means now that the opportunity has arisen for IRI, after thirty years, to materialize the ideological Islamist slogans of destroying Israel, IRI is leaving the battle field and its president only gives an empty slogan with regards to Syria, which is basically not even an Islamic ideological state, and IRI's president is back to his daily job of giving slogans and lectures for the youth in Iran. It means that all the Islamist ideological supporters of IRI in Palestine and other places from now on will be on the road of disappointment of the ideological slogans of the Iranian Islamists seeing them as nothing but empty talk.
This situation is very similar to the Soviet Union of 1962 at the time of Khrushchev during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Karl Popper said that Soviet Union ended at the time of 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis because at that time the first opportunity of destroying the West that Soviet Communism had talked of for decades, was available and not doing it at that moment ended the legitimacy of Soviet Union and the clock started ticking for the downfall of Soviet Union. Karl Popper writes in his “Lessons of this Century”, published in 1997 that the main argument of Marx’s Capital was that “capitalism cannot be reformed, but can only be destroyed; if one wishes to have a better society, it must be destroyed” [Lessons of this Century, P.19]. Regardless of all the reforms in capitalism, this tenet of Marxism, remained part of the ideology of leaders of Soviet Union, till the end of Soviet Empire. Then Popper notes the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 and Soviet’s possession of the H-bomb when for the “first time Soviet Union had ever the possibility of destroying the United States” [Ibid., P.23], nonetheless, the Soviets backed down in the 1962 Cuban Missile crisis, and Popper notes that “the Soviet Union lost the Cold War at that point, when there was an attempt to destroy America. That was when the only remaining idea of the Marxist regime failed; it was the beginning of the decline that led to the general collapse” [Ibid., P.23]. “But after 1962, they went on producing bombs, all the time knowing that they couldn’t use them. That was the absolute intellectual zero point” [Ibid., P.28].
The perspective to destroy the West, became such an integral part of the Soviet brainwash of its population. Gorbachev noted this phenomena when he saw the need to make the Soviet people *normal*. Popper writes:
"Only with Gorbachev do we find a man who realizes that he has to change the fundamental assumption of the whole of Russian politics, that they are the people whose mission it is to destroy capitalism - that is, America. Gorbachev has actually been several times to America and seen the reality there; he wants to show his understanding of a free people which is not aggressive towards Russia but hopes that Russia will come to her senses. And Gorbachev made an important statement when he said I want to make the people of the Soviet Union a normal people …You see, Gorbachev’s merit was to have understood that his people was not ‘normal’ whereas the American people was. The attitude is really quite different in America; they do not all the time have this horrible game in their mind." [Ibid., P.28]
Let's return to our topic of Islamic Republic of Iran. Why doesn't IRI attack Israel? IRI knows well from the experience of Iraq War that Iranian people do not care for any ideological war for Islam, and the reason IRI was able to do the Iraq War for eight years was because of it getting a nationalist character and in fact after the Iraq War the antiwar sentiments in Iran are so strong that even a defensive war is not that easy let alone a war of aggression especially if it is an ideological war and for Islamism. In fact, the peace seeking and antiwar sentiments in Iran are so strong that IRI has been using it for its issues confronting the West on the atomic program. Today one can say with confidence that the movement that will end the Islamic Republic of Iran is obvious and it is a movment for Iran and a world beyond war. Many years ago the topic of Beyond War was discussed extensively and there is no need to repeat here (1).
Hoping for a democratic and secular futurist republic in Iran,
May 8, 2018
*The first edition of this article was published on July 18, 2006
1. Beyond War