Daniel Bell, Future, and Work
دانیل بل، آینده و کار
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In the past 35 years, following the paper *Intelligent Tools: The Cornerstone of a New Civilization*, I asked myself what would be the most viable job for humans if the model of financial reward based on work continues, as it has persisted in the last 300 years. And in this attempt, learned a lot from Daniel Bell and Ray Kurzweil. Twenty six years ago, in August of 1993, following on the same inquiry, late Daniel Bell told me about his last paper on futurism published that year entitled "The Break Down of Time, Space, and Society." In that paper he correctly predicts the continuous decline of manufacturing jobs, and sees the work in the future to be in *services* and is careful to emphasize not McDonalds jobs, but "human services and professional services" and specifically mentions "health, education and social services." As far as the health sector is concerned, only doctors in the U.S. still have high paying jobs thanks to AMA licensing barriers, otherwise doctors in India hardly make any money. Education jobs are getting worse everyday and teachers hardly make any money and most of their jobs are getting eliminated. Social services for the elderly have grown but again some tasks are being automated and the pay hardly beats fast food jobs, and professional jobs in financial services are going the same path as retail services at Walmart. It seems to me the only jobs that are the most viable as we continue on the path of post-industrial society, are the jobs that are able to compete with the computers and other Intelligent Tools and the requirements of those jobs continuously evolve as computers gain new capabilities. Even if one is a top-notch computer programmer, s/he needs to be able to beat the latest automated state of the art programming tools, in order to justify to have a high-paying job, and those tools continuously and rapidly evolve. This reality says something about the whole society and whether continuing on social models that reward is essentially based on work, as we have in the United States, can continue to be a viable model for society at large, or adapting some European social democratic models may serve us better. We are already witnessing huge uprisings in many parts of the world. It seems like this issue is at the heart of US 2020 Presidential Election.
Hoping for a democratic and secular futurist republic in Iran,
December 10, 2019
For a Secular Democratic & Futurist Republican Party in Iran