Is President Trump Looking for a North Korean Type Solution in Iran
آیا پرزیدنت ترامپ به دنبال راه حلی نظیر کره شمالی در ایران است
The short answer is: No!
North Korea is so dependent on China that President Trump has been able to control the relationship the way he desires using China's influence by giving back to China in trade deals. But Iran has no similarity to North Korea in this regard although it is very close to Russia and China, nonetheless, Iran's Islamic Regime, as a state, is a maverick like the Libya of Muammar Gaddafi and Iraq of Saddam Hussein, although it is not just one person making decisions in Iran and the image of Ayatollah Khamenei depicted as such, by some authors, is a highly distorted image of Iran's rulers, yet the fact remains that Iranian government's relations to foreign powers resembles more the Libya of Gaddafi than North Korea of Kim Jong-un. Thus if the US is not seeking a North Korean type of solution in Iran, what is the US looking for? Although aftermaths of invading Iraq at the time of Bush was a nightmare, which the US does not want to risk ending up in such quagmire, but Iran's regime is another Gaddafi's Libya or Saddam Hussein's Iraq, that needs to be eliminated. Prince Reza Pahlavi's schemes of Politico's Nowruz greetings with President Trump last year, to Washington Institute's recent failed announcement of "Farashgard" that included some young Islamic Reformists living abroad joining Mr. Pahlavi, to encouraging Warsaw meeting and at the same time rejecting military attack on Iran which is the same old, same old game of Mr. Pahlavi asking for more money for monarchists, are plans that are not even worth the paper they are drawn on. Moreover the Islamic Reformists failed to show any results in the 8 years of Obama's support for them. Also Mojahedin (MEK) even with the backing of some senior administration officials of President Trump who gave them enough visibility in the US politics, nonetheless, since the December uprising of last year in Iran, it is clear that MEK does not have any support in the new movement of Iran which opposes Islamism and is a republican, secular, and democratic movement, tired of 40 years of lies about a republic while having the reality of a VF monarchy with its IslamicKKK (1). This all means the three high profile groups in DC that US had supported in the past 40 years, are not a real force when it comes to changing the Islamic Regime of Iran. So US has two choices, either take the risk and make a military attack on IRI coordinated with Saudi's and Israeli's hoping to make a quick win like it did in Baghdad of Saddam Hussein and to get popular support in Iran, or the US will need to destroy Islamic Republic forces all over the Middle East to end IRI, and the risk will be the rise of Daesh and similar Sunni forces again. Either way, the Iranian opposition will be sidelined which is not a win strategy for the United States either.
The only way Iranian opposition can be allied with the US efforts to get rid of IRI, is for US to end the support of Monarchists, Islamic Reformists and Mojahedin and to clearly, as we Iranians say, without any "if" and "but," support Iranian Secular Democratic Republicans who are confronting the Islamist regime. At the same time, the Iranian republican opposition should end its anti-American attitude and view the United States as our best international ally to end the rule of IRI after 40 years. There is no other option.
Hoping for a democratic and secular futurist republic in Iran,
January 30 2019
کوکلاکس کلانهای اسلامی