Futurism: Why Studied Horse Population Growth Patterns
آینده نگری: چرا روال رشد جمعیت اسبها را مطالعه کردم
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After publishing 'Intelligent Tools: The Cornerstone of a New Civilization' in Fall of 1985, started studying patterns of population growth of horses during the last 150 years! Unfortunately did not even keep my notes about those studies as I got busy with Nova Bookstore and Mundus Novus at that time! And as noted a few days ago, in contrast to Ray Kurzweil whose focus was strongAI (e.g. Singularity), my focus was narrowAI (i.e. intelligent tools). So why did I study population growth of horses and why am I mentioning it now! For an answer to the latter question, please just read the linked article about Tesla's Humanoid Robot announced by Elon Musk to debut in 2022. This situation is the reason Elon Musk now sees the need for UBI! We all know UBI was supported by Ray Kurzweil a long time ago. Thus, following Elon Musk's announcement, which is simply the result of narrowAI, major replacement of humans by Intelligent Robots is not just a speculation anymore! Let's return to the former issue, i.e. how horses were replaced in transportation industry by combustion engine; and we know it did not happen for their intelligence which was more of a menace as it was uncontrollable and they were not like today's driverless cars, in other words, horse intelligence was not preferred by carriage makers, and replacement of horses happened because of combustion engine offering more power of locomotion! Now human's replacement in manufacturing, in contrast, is because current intelligent robots can offer the human intelligence as far as industrial production needs it, but it has similar results as needing less horses for transportation in the last 150 years. Did the latter affect the population growth of horses? Yes, it did. It reduced the population growth of horses especially during the last century. Were horses completely wiped out from face of the Earth? No for many other reasons horses are still raised, from horseback riding and horse racing, to simply as human companions, but surely they have disappeared as power engines for transportation! Can we expect a similar population growth patterns for humans since we have already entered the Age of Singularity? I believe so, but more importantly is challenges of the transition period, and research about it is much needed, because this development is in contradiction with a society where income is still mainly based on *work* and work in the last 300 years in the Industrial Society has been mostly in manufacturing! I believe this fear of loss of income is the root cause of the rise of IslamicKKK in Middle East and similar forces such as the White Supremacists in the West. I admire Ray Kurzweil for always deeply understanding this issue, and also I am happy that Elon Musk now sees this issue, and also am glad that many other forefront thinkers are now proposing UBI as an alternative income model in the post-Industrial society at the time we are in a transition period to Singularity although I believe human population growth patterns will ultimately in the long run make the adaptation of human society to this new epochal change, although the transition period can be devastating! Actually the 'Supplement 2020 of Futurist Party Platform' which was published a year ago is a response to these realities that are ahead for humanity including the Iranian people!
Hoping for a democratic and secular futurist republic in Iran,
Sept 8, 2021
For a Secular Democratic & Futurist Republican Party in Iran