Sam Ghandchiسام قندچي In Iraq, there is no Military Solution for US and IRI
Sam Ghandchi
http://www.ghandchi.com/3371-us-iri-iraq-english.htm

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http://www.ghandchi.com/3371-us-iri-iraq.htm

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We have discussed Iraq for a long time. The reality is that if US even is able to completely annihilate Hashd-al-Shaabi and similar shiite militias in Iraq, still the US and its allies will not be able to defend Iraq in face of a Daesh offensive as it happened 6 years ago in Mosul. Why? Because US cannot commit the necessary ground forces in the region, and also similar to the case of Afghanistan, the cost of military engagement for the US is a lot and as we saw in the case of Syria, finally U.S. preferred to rely on Russia to get rid of Daesh in Syria. Now the opposite case! If Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) could really get all US forces out of Iraq, then IRI would not be able to defend Iraq in face of a Daesh offensive as we saw in the case of Mosul again and again that IRI was not able to defeat Daesh in Mosul. So what does all this mean? It means that during the last two years, it has been shown that US and IRI do not have a military solution to eliminate the other side in Iraq without losing large parts of Iraq to Daesh. Maybe only Iraqi Kurdistan can stand to Daesh and similar Islamic terrorist groups by its own forces; and how long it may take for national army of Iraq to be able to do the same, remains to be seen as to when and how. So in the time being really there is no military solution for USA and IRI to eliminate the other side from Iraq and maybe what is currently happening in Mosul, a non-military proxy competition, is what we will see all over Iraq, when US and IRI seriously start competing politically, i.e. those leaning towards either side grab political office! This is a reminder of how Soviet Union and United States competed politically in India for a longtime and finally the winner was USA and we see today that India is among the most trusted economic partners of USA, when US and Soviet Union never made a single shot to each other in India during the Cold War era. Maybe this should be the goal of the current US-Iraq dialogue which started yesterday! Frankly when US and Soviet Union competed in Europe during the years of Cold War, Eastern European countries had a good role model in front of them, namely Western European countries. Unfortunately there is no secular democratic role model to mention in the Middle East when considering the Cold War of USA and IRI and every country in the region needs to find its own path to a secular democratic regime worthy of the name, the same way in South Asia, every country had to do the same during Cold War era! A role model that would be really *democratic* and really *secular* like France, UK, West Germany and a lot of smaller countries in Western Europe during the Cold War era!

 

Hoping for a democratic and secular futurist republic in Iran,

 

Sam Ghandchi

http://www.ghandchi.com/index2.html

June 12, 2020
 

 


 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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