Stagnation, Yes or No?
رکود، آری یا نه؟
Two years ago, Ray Kurzweil had a dialogue with George Gilder about 15 years of secular stagnation (1). This author also made a comment about the discussion at that time (2). Today DJ Industrial Average is at its peak following a continuous upward trend of the last two years. Gilder at the time quoted Larry Summers who was once Obama's US Treasury Secretary, saying the world’s economies are "entering an era of secular stagnation, and possibly permanent decline of innovation."
Was stagnation starting in the year 2000 true or false? The reality is that 1990's witnessed an unprecedented growth of innovation in the Silicon Valley of California in the United States, a phenomena only comparable to the rise of Industrial Revolution in Europe, and anything compared to it, looks like stagnation. The 1990's phenomena was the peak of computer revolution in the 20th Century which highlighted the rise of a new economy based on processing *information* in contrast to industrial economy of the last 300 years which was based on processing *materials*.
Now, did that information processing economy collapse in the year 2000? No, computers and the Internet thrived in the last 17 years. Then, what happened? Basically this new information processing economy after the 1990's, was no longer a high margin business and became a *commodity business* the same way material processing industrial economy of Manchester, England became a commodity economy in early 1800's.
In the eyes of
those people who were used to the Silicon Valley of 1990's as the acumen of new
information processing economy, it all seemed like a stagnation, especially
after the dotcom bust in the year 2000, but the reality was that this new economy had turned into
a commodity business, like its predecessor, i.e. the industrial economy
of 1800's, with
all the perils and gains associated with a commodity business, especially regarding wages. In fact, the
need to examine the issue of
alternative income in the new economies was discussed long before all these
economic transformations (3).
Hoping for a democratic and secular futurist republic in Iran,
Sam Ghandchi, Editor/Publisher
October 9, 2017
1. Ask Ray | Renowned economist and author George
Gilder’s new information theory of money
2. Kurzweil Discusses 15 Years of Secular
کورزویل، پانزده سال رکود مدوام را بحث می کند
3. درآمد آلترناتیو-عدالت اجتماعی در جامعه فراصنعتی
Alternative Income-Social Justice in Post-Industrial Society